Turning-point indicators from business surveys: real-time detection for the euro area and its major member countries

We present tools for real-time detection of turning points in the industrial production growth-cycle of the euro area and its four largest economies. In particular, we apply a multivariate hidden Markov model to national survey results – i.e. to the earliest information about current economic developments - in order to estimate the probability of expansionary and recessionary phases. The balances of opinions used as inputs of the model are selected by ranking them according to their degree of commonality with respect to the cyclical fluctuations of the industrial sector, as estimated with the Generalized Dynamic Factor Model. The indicators appear reliable and stable.business cycle, hidden Markov model, business surveys

Changing institutions in the European market: the impact on mark-ups and rents allocation

We investigate whether the completion of the Single Market Programme has enhanced competition on the product markets across European countries, taking into account the companion structural reforms undertaken by the member countries, particularly in the labour market and the institutional setting of important industries (i.e. network industries). We test for a break in both mark-ups and the division of rent between capital and labour based on a statistical model incorporating efficient bargaining in the labour market. Using industry data for ten EU countries we find that, without controlling for changes in the rent sharing, mark-up estimates tend to increase in the 1990s. However, once we assume efficient bargaining in the labour market, mark-ups remain virtually unchanged or, in some sectors or groups of countries, even decrease; this reflects the declining shares of rents accruing to workers as a result of their diminished bargaining power. The evidence is particularly strong for high and medium-tech manufacturing, for construction and for those activities that went through deep institutional changes and privatization programmes.institutional changes, mark-up, rent-sharing

Changing Institutions in the European Market: the Impact on Mark-ups and Rents Allocation

In this paper, we investigate whether the completion of the Single Market Programme has enhanced competition on the product markets across European countries, while taking into account the companion structural reforms undertaken by the member countries. In particular, since the Single Market Programme went hand in hand with major reforms in the labour market and in the institutional setting of important industries (i.e. network industries), we test for a break in both mark-ups and the division of rent between capital and labour. For this purpose we encompass efficient bargaining in the labour market in both our theoretical and empirical model. Using industry data for ten EU countries we find that, without controlling for changes in the rent sharing, mark-up estimates tend to increase in the 1990s. However, once we assume efficient bargaining in the labour market, mark-ups remain virtually unchanged or even decrease in some sectors or groups of countries; the result stems from the declining shares of rents accruing to workers owing to a decline in their bargaining power. Without controlling for this development, a rise in firms� profitability due to rent reallocation could be wrongly interpreted as an increase in market power. At the industry level the evidence is particularly strong for high and medium-tech manufacturing, for construction and for those activities that went through deep institutional changes and privatization programmes.Mark-ups, Rent Sharing, Bargaining

Modelling Italian potential output and the output gap

The aim of the paper is to estimate a reliable quarterly time-series of potential output for the Italian economy, exploiting four alternative approaches: a Bayesian unobserved component method, a univariate time-varying autoregressive model, a production function approach and a structural VAR. Based on a wide range of evaluation criteria, all methods generate output gaps that accurately describe the Italian business cycle over the past three decades. All output gap measures are subject to non-negligible revisions when new data become available. Nonetheless they still prove to be informative about the current cyclical phase and, unlike the evidence reported in most of the literature, helpful at predicting inflation compared with simple benchmarks. We assess also the performance of output gap estimates obtained by combining the four original indicators, using either equal weights or Bayesian averaging, showing that the resulting measures (i) are less sensitive to revisions; (ii) are at least as good as the originals at tracking business cycle fluctuations; (iii) are more accurate as inflation predictors.potential output, business cycle, Phillips curve, output gap

The construction of coincident and leading indicators for the euro area business cycler of the euro area business cycle

This paper investigates the business cycle properties of the euro area and computes a coincident and a leading indicator of economic activity. We accomplish this by applying the newly introduced generalized factor model to a properly constructed and harmonized data set of short term statistics of the euro area (794 monthly series). Unlike other methods used in the literature, the procedure takes into consideration the cross-country as well as the withincountry correlation structure and exploits all information on dynamic cross-correlations. As a byproduct of our analysis, we provide a characterization of the commonality and dynamic relations of the series in the data set with respect to the coincident indicator and a dating of the euro area cycle.business cycle, dynamic factor model

A real time coincident indicator of the euro area business cycle

This paper is the result of the Bank of Italy-CEPR project to construct a monthly coincident indicator of the business cycle of the euro area. The index is estimated on the basis of a harmonized data set of monthly statistics of the euro area (951 series) which we constructed from a variety of sources. We use the information of this large panel to obtain an indicator which has three characteristics: (i) it provides real time information on monthly coincident activity since it is updated as new information become available in a non-synchronous way; (ii) it is cleaned from noise originated from measurement error and idiosyncratic national and sectoral dynamics; (iii) it is cleaned from seasonal and short-run dynamics through a Þlter that requires very little revision at the end of the sample. Unlike other methods used in the literature, the procedure takes into consideration the cross-country as well as the within-country correlation structure and exploits all information on dynamic cross-correlations. As a byproduct of our analysis, we provide a characterization of the commonality and dynamic relations of the series in the data set with respect to the coincident indicator and a dating of the euro area cycle.business cycle, dynamic factor model

The main recessions in Italy: a retrospective comparison

This paper proposes a comparative analysis of the main macroeconomic aggregates (both real and credit aggregates), and the monetary policy response during the most severe recessions experienced by the Italian economy. This descriptive study focuses mainly on the last forty years, a period for which there is ample and detailed information available. In particular, the paper contrasts the data on the current deep recession with those in 1974-75 and 1992-93, at the times of the oil crisis and the currency crisis respectively. For a selected list of variables, a comparison is made with the dynamics of the recession of the 1930s.gcyclical fluctuations, recession, credit supply, monetary policy

Le principali recessioni italiane: un confronto retrospettivo

Il lavoro propone un’analisi comparata dell’andamento dei principali aggregati macroeconomici, reali e creditizi, nonché delle reazioni della politica monetaria in occasione delle più gravi recessioni attraversate dall’economia italiana. L’indagine, di tipo descrittivo, si concentra soprattutto sugli ultimi quarant’anni, per i quali il quadro informativo disponibile è ampio e dettagliato. In particolare, si confronta l’evidenza relativa alla profonda recessione del 2008-09 con quelle registrate nel 1974-75 e nel 1992-93, in corrispondenza delle crisi petrolifera e valutaria. Per un numero ridotto di variabili si propone anche un raffronto con gli andamenti negli anni trenta.Fluttuazioni cicliche, recessioni, offerta di credito, politica monetaria

Report on trends in the Italian productive system

In the last decade the Italian economy has underperformed compared both with the previous decades and with the main European countries. It is widely acknowledged that this evolution reflects unresolved structural problems, which have become more urgent in view of the major changes in the world economy (the new technological paradigm, globalization, European economic integration). The goal of the Report is to make a critical survey of all the empirical analyses on the Italian economy and to derive policy suggestions. The evolution of Italy’s productive system is examined from a long-run perspective, highlighting weaknesses and possible signs of recovery and elaborating on the systemic features that may have negatively affected growth performance directly or indirectly through the above exogenous shocks. The focus, mostly but not exclusively microeconomic, emphasizes the considerable heterogeneity of firms, a crucial element for identifying the factors that affect economic growth.growth, productivity, market structure, firm heterogeneity

Razionalita' limitata, reti neurali e agenti non rappresentativi: un approccio agli equilibri congetturali

Dottorato di ricerca in economia politica. 8. ciclo. Relatori C. Giannini e G. RampaConsiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche - Biblioteca Centrale - P.le Aldo Moro, 7, Rome; Biblioteca Nazionale Centrale - P.za Cavalleggeri, 1, Florence / CNR - Consiglio Nazionale delle RichercheSIGLEITItal